Ticket Method: Trend Pullback (EMA 50 Dynamic Retest)
Price breached stop loss (¥158.033) at 02:15 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Decision support only · Copy levels manually · Platform-Review did not place or confirm a broker order.
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Personal planning record only · Not a broker order · Does not change the canonical ticket.
Closed M15 candle 2026-10-29 05:00 UTC (318/50 bars): M15 bearish EMA stack (EMA 20 157.784 < EMA 50 157.849) is in bounce/transition with close at 157.818 testing above EMA 20.
Confirmed M15 swing low 157.660 from M15 candle 2026-10-29 04:15 UTC (raw low 157.660): a closed M15 bar below 157.660 breaks range support.
Closed M15 bar (2026-10-29 05:00 UTC): bullish close at 157.818 (range 0.064, 0.75x ATR); crossed & closed above EMA 20 (157.784).
Watching Entry Retest: Potential BUY setup under Structural Reversal (Liquidity Sweep & CHoCH). Watching entry zone 157.653–157.727. Awaiting trigger: displacement fill. Not entered yet.
Daily (D1) and 4-hour (H4) trend for USD/JPY. Open a chart on demand; change the main chart timeframe with the selector above the chart.
Chart available — AI analysis needs 16 closed D1 bars (8 so far).
48 closed D1 bars plotted (94 total) · last bar 10-28 00:00 UTC
Chart available — AI analysis needs 120 closed H4 bars (626 so far).
48 closed H4 bars plotted (120 total) · last bar 10-29 01:00 UTC
Regime: Range / Reversal. Range exhaustion model active.
The six labelled points are plain readings of the plotted M15 candles (80 bars): trend, EMA 20/50, the 200 average, Bollinger bands, price structure and volatility. When a reading needs more history than exists it says “Awaiting data”. All other moving points and trails are decoration. They are not indicators, votes or a forecast, and no confidence or win-rate is estimated. The field does not appear in the X share image, which captures the chart only.
Price is below EMA 50, EMA 20 is below EMA 50 and the slope is not rising.
The fast average sits below the slow one: momentum leans down.
Price is trading above the long-term average.
Price is inside the middle of the bands: no stretch either way.
Swing highs and lows are not moving together: range or transition.
Bar size is in line with recent average.
Projected levels, drawn on the chart as PLANNED ENTRY / SL / TP. Not an entered or copyable trade until a verified ticket exists.
Only 18 verified closed tickets (8W / 10L (18 closed trades), +1.10R net) — too few to judge USDJPY M15. Currently under evaluation; results are shown as recorded, not as a proven signal to copy.
Earlier records without stored entry evidence (not counted above): 2 W / 1 L, +1.85R as originally recorded.
| Method | W/L Balance | Verified | W | L | Unk. | Net R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural Reversal (Liquidity Sweep & CHoCH)shown on charttoo few | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | −1.30R | |
| Trend Pullback (EMA 50 Dynamic Retest)too few | 9 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +0.55R | |
| Breakout & Retest (FVG)too few | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1.85R |
Price reached TP1 (¥157.731) at 14:15 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥157.731) at 14:15 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.033) at 02:15 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥157.979) at 21:00 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.044) at 14:45 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.044) at 14:45 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Entry zone and stop loss both touched in same M15 bar. Execution sequence cannot be confirmed without tick data.
Price reached TP1 (¥157.797) at 11:00 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥157.862) at 08:15 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥157.893) at 06:30 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥157.861) at 06:00 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.377) at 18:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.388) at 08:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.130) at 05:15 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.292) at 18:15 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥158.229) at 13:15 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.094) at 08:45 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss (¥158.205) at 07:00 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥158.255) at 06:00 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥158.355) at 05:30 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
H1 range reached the stop. Observed 2026-10-16T17:00Z. R is before spread/commission (no cost model).
Price reached TP1 (¥157.731) at 14:15 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 (¥157.731) at 14:15 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Your saved reasoning beside immutable canonical outcomes.
3 of 21 are earlier records without stored entry evidence (2W / 1L, +1.85R); they are not counted in Recorded Results above.
| Announced (UTC) | Record Type | Direction | Entry Mid | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Status | Net Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 02:15 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 158.009 | 158.194 | 157.731 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | 158.107 | 158.033 | 158.218 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 21:15 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 158.009 | 158.194 | 157.731 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-15 16:30 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 158.175 | 158.306 | 157.979 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-15 13:30 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 157.830 | 158.044 | 157.509 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 13:15 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 157.830 | 158.044 | 157.509 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 10:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 157.878 | 157.932 | 157.797 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-15 06:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 157.997 | 158.087 | 157.862 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-15 06:15 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 157.998 | 158.068 | 157.893 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 157.974 | 158.049 | 157.861 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-14 17:30 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | 158.611 | 158.377 | 158.962 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-14 06:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | 158.298 | 158.388 | 158.163 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-14 03:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | 158.222 | 158.130 | 158.360 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-13 16:30 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | 158.368 | 158.292 | 158.482 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-13 11:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | 158.017 | 157.876 | 158.229 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-13 07:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | 158.194 | 158.094 | 158.344 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-13 06:15 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | 158.271 | 158.205 | 158.370 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-13 05:45 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | SELL | 158.339 | 158.395 | 158.255 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-13 02:45 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | BUY | 158.245 | 158.172 | 158.355 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-13 01:30 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | BUY | 158.411 | 158.341 | 158.516 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-11 23:30 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | 158.220 | 158.154 | 158.319 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |