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Ticket Method: Breakout & Retest (FVG)
Price breached stop loss ($4155.13) at 06:00 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
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Personal planning record only · Not a broker order · Does not change the canonical ticket.
Closed M15 candle 2026-10-26 22:45 UTC (480/50 bars): M15 EMA 20 ($4015.25) and EMA 50 ($4014.39) are compressed (spread $0.86 < 0.35 ATR) between support $4008.53 and resistance $4017.67.
Confirmed M15 swing high $4017.67 from M15 candle 2026-10-26 21:00 UTC (raw high 4017.67): a closed M15 bar above $4017.67 breaks range resistance (confirmed range support floor at $4008.53 from 2026-10-26 19:15 UTC).
Closed M15 bar (2026-10-26 22:45 UTC): bearish close at $4014.77 (range $2.55, 0.80x ATR).
Watching Entry Retest: Potential BUY setup under Trend Pullback (EMA 50 Dynamic Retest). Watching entry zone $4012.32–$4014.87. Awaiting trigger: Watching for entry fill inside [$4014.39 – $4014.77].. Not entered yet.
Daily (D1) and 4-hour (H4) trend for XAU/USD. Open a chart on demand; change the main chart timeframe with the selector above the chart.
D1 Resistance / Supply: $4189.17 – $4208.99
48 closed D1 bars plotted (90 total) · last bar 10-23 00:00 UTC
H4 Resistance / Supply: $4029.49 – $4038.69
48 closed H4 bars plotted (120 total) · last bar 10-26 18:00 UTC
Watching for entry fill inside [$4014.39 – $4014.77].
The six labelled points are plain readings of the plotted M15 candles (80 bars): trend, EMA 20/50, the 200 average, Bollinger bands, price structure and volatility. When a reading needs more history than exists it says “Awaiting data”. All other moving points and trails are decoration. They are not indicators, votes or a forecast, and no confidence or win-rate is estimated. The field does not appear in the X share image, which captures the chart only.
Price is above EMA 50, EMA 20 is above EMA 50 and the slope is not falling.
The fast average sits above the slow one: momentum leans up.
Price is trading below the long-term average.
Price is inside the middle of the bands: no stretch either way.
Swing highs and lows are not moving together: range or transition.
Bars are smaller than recent average: the market is quiet.
Projected levels, drawn on the chart as PLANNED ENTRY / SL / TP. Not an entered or copyable trade until a verified ticket exists.
Only 9 verified closed tickets (1W / 8L (9 closed trades), −6.95R net) — too few to judge XAUUSD M15. Currently under evaluation; results are shown as recorded, not as a proven signal to copy.
Earlier records without stored entry evidence (not counted above): 4 W / 4 L, +1.60R as originally recorded.
| Method | W/L Balance | Verified | W | L | Unk. | Net R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout & Retest (FVG)too few | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | −0.65R | |
| Structural Reversal (Liquidity Sweep)too few | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | −6.30R | |
| Trend Pullback (EMA 50 Dynamic Retest)shown on charttoo few | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | n/a |
Price breached stop loss ($4143.27) at 14:15 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss ($4162.27) at 13:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss ($4162.27) at 13:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss ($4162.27) at 13:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss ($4162.27) at 13:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss ($4162.27) at 13:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Entry zone and stop loss both touched in same M15 bar. Execution sequence cannot be confirmed without tick data.
Price breached stop loss ($4136.26) at 06:00 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Entry zone and stop loss both touched in same M15 bar. Execution sequence cannot be confirmed without tick data.
Price reached TP1 ($4131.93) at 12:45 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Entry zone and stop loss both touched in same M15 bar. Execution sequence cannot be confirmed without tick data.
Price breached stop loss ($4155.13) at 06:00 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Entry zone and stop loss both touched in same M15 bar. Execution sequence cannot be confirmed without tick data.
Entry zone and stop loss both touched in same M15 bar. Execution sequence cannot be confirmed without tick data.
Price breached stop loss ($4182.42) at 03:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 ($4154.08) at 01:30 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Entry zone and stop loss both touched in same M15 bar. Execution sequence cannot be confirmed without tick data.
Price breached stop loss ($4169.26) at 23:00 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price reached TP1 ($4179.13) at 08:15 UTC. Capital de-risked at +1.5R gross (+1.45R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Price breached stop loss ($4190.63) at 05:30 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
H1 range reached TP2. Observed 2026-10-23T02:00Z. R is before spread/commission (no cost model).
H1 range reached TP1. Observed 2026-10-22T06:00Z. R is before spread/commission (no cost model).
Price breached stop loss ($4143.27) at 14:15 UTC. Realized loss -1.0R gross (-1.05R net after modeled 0.05R friction).
Your saved reasoning beside immutable canonical outcomes.
8 of 17 are earlier records without stored entry evidence (4W / 4L, +1.60R); they are not counted in Recorded Results above.
| Announced (UTC) | Record Type | Direction | Entry Mid | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Status | Net Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 19:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | $4167.45 | $4143.27 | $4203.72 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 06:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | $4138.10 | $4162.27 | $4101.85 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 06:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | $4138.10 | $4162.27 | $4101.85 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 06:15 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | $4137.38 | $4162.27 | $4100.05 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | $4139.96 | $4162.27 | $4106.50 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 05:45 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | $4141.30 | $4162.27 | $4109.85 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-15 03:15 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | $4149.35 | $4136.26 | $4168.99 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | SELL | $4147.80 | $4158.38 | $4131.93 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 UTC | VERIFIED LIVE (M15) | BUY | $4163.29 | $4155.13 | $4175.53 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-13 02:30 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | SELL | $4171.04 | $4182.42 | $4153.97 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-13 00:45 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | SELL | $4165.12 | $4172.48 | $4154.08 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-12 22:15 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | BUY | $4171.83 | $4169.26 | $4175.68 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-12 05:30 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | SELL | $4191.36 | $4199.51 | $4179.13 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-12 04:30 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | BUY | $4199.23 | $4190.63 | $4212.13 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |
| 2026-10-09 18:15 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | BUY | $4194.89 | $4190.34 | $4201.72 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-09 13:45 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | BUY | $4182.02 | $4173.85 | $4194.28 | Target 1 Reached (+1.45R Net) | +1.45R |
| 2026-10-08 16:45 UTC | EARLIER RECORD (UNVERIFIED) | SELL | $4120.25 | $4132.34 | $4102.12 | Stop Loss Hit (-1.05R Net) | -1.05R |